Out of the blue (seemingly), the Russians have approached Indonesia and asked for, of all things, basing rights for their strategic bombers.
Jane’s, a respected source of strategic intelligence, said, “Jakarta has received an official request from Moscow, seeking permission for Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) aircraft to be based at a facility in Indonesia’s easternmost province… In the request, Russia seeks to base several long-range aircraft at the Manuhua Air Force Base, which shares a runway with the Frans Kaisiepo Airport, documents that have been presented to Jane’s reveal.”
The article implied that in recent years, Russian TU-95 Bombers have landed at the base before. The only instance of a strategic bomber visit by Russia that could be readily found was a 2017 short visit for a “Navigation Exercise”.
Russia has only a small number of strategic bombers, approximately 15 TU-160 “Blackjack” and 40 or so TU-95 “Bears” with another 60 or so TU-22M “Backfires” which are more like medium-range bombers.
At any one time, only 50 or so of these bombers are mission-capable. These bombers were located primarily at Engels (close to Ukraine, most if not all aircraft have been moved because of Ukrainian drone strikes), Dyagilevo (near Moscow), and Ukrainka (the far east toward the Pacific). The real issue with this Indonesian ask by Russia, is that it was very likely for a friend, China.
New Base for Chinese and Russian Bombers, if obtained, is a Four-fer
The Chinese have roughly 200 of the H-6 Long Range Bomber, many of them modern versions of the old Soviet Tu-16 Badger Bomber. The Chinese are now close to introducing the H-20, Stealth Bomber clone of the American B-2/B-21.
The Chinese also have a new, three engine stealth strike aircraft, which in many ways is a medium bomber/high performance strike aircraft like the American F-111, which are all gone now.
When the Russians fly their two bomber aircraft patrols under Alaska and down the West Coast of the United States, they now normally bring two Chinese H-6 Bombers so the Chinese Crews can receive training and experience.
It is very likely that Chinese bombers and strike aircraft will be part of any rotation of aircraft to Manuhua Air Base, if a deal is reached.
Russian and Chinese bombers flying out of Indonesia would radically alter the balance of power in the Western Pacific and these aircraft would serve four purposes.
First, they would be a strategic message of a presence in a new part of the Western Pacific, behind the all-important Second Island Chain of Palau, the Federated States of Micronesia, Guam, Tinian, and Saipan.
Second, this force of bombers aircraft would be well within range of Darwin where the United States is setting up new airfields and presence to complement the Royal Australian Air Force.
Third, these same bomber aircraft would be able to approach and hold at risk the Second Island Chain from behind.
Fourth, there is an even further Chinese Presence being established to the Southeast of this new air base in Indonesia.
The Chinese, through election malfeasance, have taken control of the sacred Solomon Islands, including Guadalcanal and created an Iron Curtain.
The Russian and Chinese bombers would be able to provide air cover for any Chinese ships and convoys going to and from the Solomon Islands.
Back to the future: the forgotten Indonesian nuclear threat of 1960 – 1965
What may be forgotten is a period when the Communist leaning leader of Indonesia was given advanced weaponry by the Soviet Union and China. President Sukarno of Indonesia actively voiced his interest in obtaining nuclear weapons from 1960 until his overthrow in 1965.
The Russians obliged by giving early versions of the TU-16 Badger to Sukarno in addition to a Sverdlov Class Cruiser, larger than any other naval ship in the region outside of American aircraft carriers.
With the TU-16, Sukarno had a long-range bomber force that was matched only by the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Soviet Union.
To provide deterrence to Indonesian adventurism being done on behalf of the Soviet Union and China, the United Kingdom kept long-range V-Force Bombers in Singapore along with nuclear weapons.
The British deterrence force was also a clear message to China to not make a move on Hong Kong. The threat of Indonesian attack was real, and the Australians dispersed and hardened their air bases to ensure their Air Force was not wiped out in a first strike by Indonesia.
Sukarno was overthrown in a coup in 1965 by the Indonesian Army who slaughtered the Communists on a large scale.
The CIA also ran an operation to steal some of the advance anti-aircraft missiles provided by the Soviet Union which provided crucial knowledge to help turn the tide in the American air strikes into North Vietnam which were losing many aircraft to the new Soviet missiles.
Counter and Parry through State Department
The ink does not appear to be dry or even present yet on an Indonesian deal with Russia and China on use of the Manuhua Air Base. However, part of the reason that the discussion over the use of the air base has proceeded is the failure of the Obama and Biden Committee State Department to build a strong relationship with Indonesia.
The Democrats spent their time with Indonesia pushing what Democrats usually push, Woke-ism.
The Obama/Biden Teams focused on aggressive lecturing on Transgenderism, Green Energy, Recycling, and similar idiot projects. This did not go over well with the Indonesians – which constitute the largest Muslim population in the world.
The Chinese provided what the Indonesians wanted which were roads, bridges, and other infrastructure projects. In regular meetings of the Obama Biden Committee, Indonesia was poo-pooed, maligned, and dismissed by the Obama/Biden team members. Indonesia was always below the priority cut line.
The best answer to counter this ploy by the Russians, who are really providing cover for the Chinese, is installing a Trump-appointed Political Ambassador at warp speed to replace Kamala Shirin Lakhdhir, a career Foreign Service Officer. The likelihood of Lakhdhir effectively representing America First values to create a strong partnership with Indonesia thus nullifying any thought of allowing Russian and Chinese bombers to base in Indonesia is slim to none.
All viewpoints are personal and do not reflect the viewpoints of any organization.
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